I agree with your summary but disagree on "He faces a more difficult future than Ardern". Whilst your analysis is correct about the middle aged woman swing voters, the Chipster has an appeal to many disaffected one time Labour voters at the bottom end. (Indeed, the campaigns are working this angle).
Whilst I personally think Chippie is a version of the Emperor's new clothes (As per your comment 4) he doesnt have the baggage that Ardern is seen as having (Dont forget the Curia poll from 3? days ago, showing JA's popularity had plummeted to -1).
Most NZers arent political and they will warm to Chippie because he is not hi brow and seems very relaxed (We see him tooling around in his Red Rav4 locally and in Pak N Save with the shorts on). So I think after a really tempestuous year in politics, it may be the change people are looking for.
Many commenters on social media had tired of her 'elite ideas' and 'arrogance' which were exacerbated this year by the pressure she was under. She became strident and unyielding in the public view.
So the question will be how far will Chippie (sorry Bro, its Chippie) go and can his man of the people schtick and tax cut/ credit sweeteners do the job?
For various reasons, I dont think he will address the underlying issues Trotter mentions and that could be a mistake if he is serious about returning Labour to power and its historic roots.
I think you have missed how politically astute Jacinda's move was. Her timing wiped National off the front page exactly when they were expecting to make the media running at the start of election year. While there were many layers to her decision - some personal - the main driver was what would serve the country, and the Labour Party, best.
I’m a swing voted who voted for the Key government multiple times but then Labour in the last two elections, and I have enormous admiration for Jacinda Ardern, but have been unsure who to vote for this year and ‘swinging’ back to National has become a possibility for me. However although shocked by Jacinda’s resignation, Hipkins assumption of the leadership and the signals he has been sending already increase the likelihood I would vote Labour again this year. My perception is that he will be better at driving things through and ‘getting things done’. Maybe you are underestimating his impact a bit? The next poll will be interesting!
I agree with your summary but disagree on "He faces a more difficult future than Ardern". Whilst your analysis is correct about the middle aged woman swing voters, the Chipster has an appeal to many disaffected one time Labour voters at the bottom end. (Indeed, the campaigns are working this angle).
Whilst I personally think Chippie is a version of the Emperor's new clothes (As per your comment 4) he doesnt have the baggage that Ardern is seen as having (Dont forget the Curia poll from 3? days ago, showing JA's popularity had plummeted to -1).
Most NZers arent political and they will warm to Chippie because he is not hi brow and seems very relaxed (We see him tooling around in his Red Rav4 locally and in Pak N Save with the shorts on). So I think after a really tempestuous year in politics, it may be the change people are looking for.
Many commenters on social media had tired of her 'elite ideas' and 'arrogance' which were exacerbated this year by the pressure she was under. She became strident and unyielding in the public view.
However, if you havent seen it, you should view Chris Trotter's take on the underlying issues (correlating with what your analysis found) which will quietly effect Chippie's chances this year: https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2023/01/does-chris-hipkins-have-spinal-steel-to.html
So the question will be how far will Chippie (sorry Bro, its Chippie) go and can his man of the people schtick and tax cut/ credit sweeteners do the job?
For various reasons, I dont think he will address the underlying issues Trotter mentions and that could be a mistake if he is serious about returning Labour to power and its historic roots.
I think you have missed how politically astute Jacinda's move was. Her timing wiped National off the front page exactly when they were expecting to make the media running at the start of election year. While there were many layers to her decision - some personal - the main driver was what would serve the country, and the Labour Party, best.
I’m a swing voted who voted for the Key government multiple times but then Labour in the last two elections, and I have enormous admiration for Jacinda Ardern, but have been unsure who to vote for this year and ‘swinging’ back to National has become a possibility for me. However although shocked by Jacinda’s resignation, Hipkins assumption of the leadership and the signals he has been sending already increase the likelihood I would vote Labour again this year. My perception is that he will be better at driving things through and ‘getting things done’. Maybe you are underestimating his impact a bit? The next poll will be interesting!
Interesting insight from the inside.